Weather risk for filming in Nairobi
Nairobi averages 26 rain days in April — a three-day exterior shoot then hits at least one with 100 % probability. In July (5 rain days) the same risk drops to 42 %. The calculator above is preset to Nairobi and runs the numbers for your count of exterior days.
Weather risk calculator for Nairobi
- Risk per day
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- At least one day hit
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- Expected lost days
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Rain risk in Nairobi by month
Rain days are long-term monthly means — not a forecast, but the basis for the budget question: once the chance of losing a day passes ~60 %, the cover set is cheaper than the loss.
| Month | Rain days | Mean temp | Sun hours/day | Risk (3 days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 9 | 19.8 °C | 11.1 | 66 % |
| February | 8 | 20.6 °C | 11.3 | 61 % |
| March | 13 | 20.7 °C | 10.8 | 82 % |
| April | 26 | 19.4 °C | 9.7 | 100 % |
| May | 18 | 18.6 °C | 10.0 | 94 % |
| June | 9 | 17.7 °C | 9.4 | 66 % |
| July | 5 | 17.2 °C | 8.3 | 42 % |
| August | 8 | 17.5 °C | 8.5 | 61 % |
| September | 8 | 18.6 °C | 9.9 | 61 % |
| October | 14 | 19.7 °C | 10.5 | 85 % |
| November | 22 | 18.7 °C | 9.8 | 98 % |
| December | 16 | 19.0 °C | 10.7 | 90 % |
The best month for exteriors
Combining daylight and rain days, July comes out ahead in Nairobi: 12h 03min of usable light against 5 mean rain days. The driest month (July) and the brightest are not automatically the same — which is exactly why the combined view matters.
For scheduling, a weather day costs more than the day itself: location availability, crew follow-on bookings and possibly the travel home. TillyGen puts the month's rain risk right next to the sun window inside the schedule — together they decide which day can happen outside.
Frequently asked
When does it rain least in Nairobi?
July, with a mean of 5 rain days. The most falls in April with 26.
How is the washout risk computed?
Rain days ÷ 30 gives the per-day hit probability; across N exterior days, 1 − (1 − p)ᴺ is the chance of at least one hit. Deliberately simple and conservative — it prices the month's structural risk rather than forecasting weather.
What is the best month to shoot in Nairobi?
On light and rain combined, July. The matching sun times live on the golden-hour page for Nairobi and on the city page.